So we come to the decider in the 3 match T20 series between South Africa and Australia at Cape Town.

Normally a series decider is a big game with both teams going all out to win it, this one is different with both team still looking at combinations before the World Cup starts and for that reason this is a tough game to call at this stage.

SAF has some seriously devastating T20 batsman in AB, De Kock and Miller and FAF, JP and Russouw can be great support players with the ability to explode if needed, no sure if this is the line-up that plays as I reading that Behadien will probably get another game and Amla will come in place of De Kock, strange to say this but Amla for De Kock weakens the team quite a bit despite how good Amla is even in this format, Do Kock is just batting at another level recently. Russouw is a miles better batsman than Behadien but South African selections are very often not merit based and that is the only reason you would consider Behadien ahead of Russouw especially with 5 bowlers.

The bowling also probably continues with Steyn ahead of Abbott, Rabada the gun pace bowler and Tahir the gun spinner, Morris is poor upfront very often but can be good at the death, Wiese is clearly the weak link as we saw in the last game too. JP didnt bowl well in the 1st game and wasnt used in the 2nd game. Not sure if Abbott comes in and I wouldnt mind seeing him ahead of Wiese even though that weakens the batting slightly.

The Aussie batting looks very dangerous on paper with so many attacking batsman, Finch,Watson, Warner, Maxwell. These arent the normal 120 S/R batsman but those that can score at 175+ for a long period of time, Warner at 4 seemed to have solved the problem of who will open and worked superbly for the Aussies in the last game. Steven Smith hasnt looked good but can do a similar role to FAF which is not a bad thing when you have so many batsman as long as he bats at a S/R of over 120. Lower order of Marsh, Faulkener, Hasting/Coulter Nile can also contribute quick runs.

The bowling of Australia is weak and the reason they lose so many T20’s. Coulter Nile bowled well in the 1st game and think he should come back, Faulkener also must play if he is fully fit and Hastings would be my 3rd seamer. Zampa is a decent leggie though not in the same class as Tahir. This for me is Australia’s strongest under the circumstances but I think they may play Hazelwood and they would like to test him out.


The Cape Town pitch is very different from the Wanderers and has generally not had high scores in the past, in 13 games 170 has been crossed in only 1 games and several scores below 140 including the game in the last series between South Africa and England where 134 was nearly defended.

Australia 138/9 20.0 6.90 1 lost v Zimbabwe 12 Sep 2007 T20I # 23
Zimbabwe 139/5 19.5 139 7.00 2 won v Australia 12 Sep 2007 T20I # 23
England 188/9 20.0 9.40 1 won v Zimbabwe 13 Sep 2007 T20I # 25
Zimbabwe 138/7 20.0 189 6.90 2 lost v England 13 Sep 2007 T20I # 25
England 135 20.0 6.75 1 lost v Australia 14 Sep 2007 T20I # 28
Australia 136/2 14.5 136 9.16 2 won v England 14 Sep 2007 T20I # 28
Bangladesh 144 19.3 7.38 1 lost v South Africa 15 Sep 2007 T20I # 31
South Africa 146/3 18.5 145 7.75 2 won v Bangladesh 15 Sep 2007 T20I # 31
Bangladesh 123/8 20.0 6.15 1 lost v Australia 16 Sep 2007 T20I # 33
Australia 124/1 13.5 124 8.96 2 won v Bangladesh 16 Sep 2007 T20I # 33
South Africa 154/8 20.0 7.70 1 won v England 16 Sep 2007 T20I # 34
England 135/7 20.0 155 6.75 2 lost v South Africa 16 Sep 2007 T20I # 34
Sri Lanka 101 19.3 5.17 1 lost v Australia 20 Sep 2007 T20I # 41
Australia 102/0 10.2 102 9.87 2 won v Sri Lanka 20 Sep 2007 T20I # 41
Bangladesh 140 19.4 7.11 1 lost v Pakistan 20 Sep 2007 T20I # 42
Pakistan 141/6 19.0 141 7.42 2 won v Bangladesh 20 Sep 2007 T20I # 42
New Zealand 143/8 20.0 7.15 1 lost v Pakistan 22 Sep 2007 T20I # 44
Pakistan 147/4 18.5 144 7.80 2 won v New Zealand 22 Sep 2007 T20I # 44
South Africa 146/7 20.0 7.30 1 lost v Australia 13 Oct 2011 T20I # 210
Australia 147/5 19.3 147 7.53 2 won v South Africa 13 Oct 2011 T20I # 210
Pakistan 176/4 20.0 8.80 1 won v South Africa 22 Nov 2013 T20I # 343
South Africa 170/4 20.0 177 8.50 2 lost v Pakistan 22 Nov 2013 T20I # 343
South Africa 165/4 20.0 8.25 1 lost v West Indies 9 Jan 2015 T20I # 413
West Indies 168/6 19.2 166 8.68 2 won v South Africa 9 Jan 2015 T20I # 413
England 134/8 20.0 6.70 1 lost v South Africa 19 Feb 2016 T20I # 503
South Africa 135/7 20.0 135 6.75 2 won v England 19 Feb 2016 T20I # 503



Weather looks OK and we should have no disruptions

Odds and My Play

SAF are 1.93,cant make a play till you dont see the teams and if there are no major surprises I expect a close a game with a few flips.

Disclaimer : This is my opinion at the time of writing this piece, my opinion changes based on team selection, weather, pitch changes and during the course of the game.Normally I do tweet my opinion in Running which can be followed on Twitter @rkm79 but  i do not accept any responsibility and abuse if anyone loses money for following what I have said. YOUR BOOK IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY, NOT MINE



    • Very difficult to answer that across scenarios and wont be able to quantify but if you see an over-reaction to a couple of boundries For EG. a team at a SP of 1.5 goes to 1.4 after being 10-0 in 1 over I would call that short.

      • So in the match between srilanka and nz 5th odi where u made profit. How u played it. I mean when you backed NZ and why? I appreciate a detailed reply. You mentioned it was easy…

        • Well I backed the Kiwis at 1.6 after Latham got out as the best 2 batsman were at the crease and Guptill was in terrific form and the pitch was flat, would have taken a loss if either had got out in the next 5 overs but they batted long, at that stage I could see the Kiwis reach around 300 which I thought would be competite but Lanka could shake it, Lanka lost early wickets but they had Matthews and Chandimal and a few hitters so I greened at Sub 1.1, then a few small trades and upped the profit.

  1. Hey man,

    Great blog. Look forward to regular updates. I have set myself a target for the year too (although not as big as yours). Nice work on the match previews as well.

  2. Thanks for ur valuable preview. Definitely perth is worth to back. I m looking for higher odds like 1.90 to back them. Hope so they give me as from last some matches not able to concentrate on winning.

  3. spot on replies for this game mate….
    as you rightly said
    * Corry wont do well he just made 16 runs.
    * scores would be between 275-300 and NZ made 283
    * chasing down wont be difficult ….and Australia made it easy
    * team batting first made less than 350…infact less than 300 and was well chased down
    * Sondhi was out and Santner in

    Really very very accurate analysis
    Im going to follow you for every match


  4. dear sir,

    I am anxiously awaiting your review of the final match SA vs Eng
    Pls advise so I can then read your opinion…only then I will put my stakes

  5. Sir i am waiting for your review on india vs lanka
    pls give your suggestions sir otherwise it is difficult for me to decide easily

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