So we come to the decider in the 3 match T20 series between South Africa and Australia at Cape Town.
Normally a series decider is a big game with both teams going all out to win it, this one is different with both team still looking at combinations before the World Cup starts and for that reason this is a tough game to call at this stage.
SAF has some seriously devastating T20 batsman in AB, De Kock and Miller and FAF, JP and Russouw can be great support players with the ability to explode if needed, no sure if this is the line-up that plays as I reading that Behadien will probably get another game and Amla will come in place of De Kock, strange to say this but Amla for De Kock weakens the team quite a bit despite how good Amla is even in this format, Do Kock is just batting at another level recently. Russouw is a miles better batsman than Behadien but South African selections are very often not merit based and that is the only reason you would consider Behadien ahead of Russouw especially with 5 bowlers.
The bowling also probably continues with Steyn ahead of Abbott, Rabada the gun pace bowler and Tahir the gun spinner, Morris is poor upfront very often but can be good at the death, Wiese is clearly the weak link as we saw in the last game too. JP didnt bowl well in the 1st game and wasnt used in the 2nd game. Not sure if Abbott comes in and I wouldnt mind seeing him ahead of Wiese even though that weakens the batting slightly.
The Aussie batting looks very dangerous on paper with so many attacking batsman, Finch,Watson, Warner, Maxwell. These arent the normal 120 S/R batsman but those that can score at 175+ for a long period of time, Warner at 4 seemed to have solved the problem of who will open and worked superbly for the Aussies in the last game. Steven Smith hasnt looked good but can do a similar role to FAF which is not a bad thing when you have so many batsman as long as he bats at a S/R of over 120. Lower order of Marsh, Faulkener, Hasting/Coulter Nile can also contribute quick runs.
The bowling of Australia is weak and the reason they lose so many T20’s. Coulter Nile bowled well in the 1st game and think he should come back, Faulkener also must play if he is fully fit and Hastings would be my 3rd seamer. Zampa is a decent leggie though not in the same class as Tahir. This for me is Australia’s strongest under the circumstances but I think they may play Hazelwood and they would like to test him out.
The Cape Town pitch is very different from the Wanderers and has generally not had high scores in the past, in 13 games 170 has been crossed in only 1 games and several scores below 140 including the game in the last series between South Africa and England where 134 was nearly defended.
|Australia||138/9||20.0||6.90||1||lost||v Zimbabwe||12 Sep 2007||T20I # 23|
|Zimbabwe||139/5||19.5||139||7.00||2||won||v Australia||12 Sep 2007||T20I # 23|
|England||188/9||20.0||9.40||1||won||v Zimbabwe||13 Sep 2007||T20I # 25|
|Zimbabwe||138/7||20.0||189||6.90||2||lost||v England||13 Sep 2007||T20I # 25|
|England||135||20.0||6.75||1||lost||v Australia||14 Sep 2007||T20I # 28|
|Australia||136/2||14.5||136||9.16||2||won||v England||14 Sep 2007||T20I # 28|
|Bangladesh||144||19.3||7.38||1||lost||v South Africa||15 Sep 2007||T20I # 31|
|South Africa||146/3||18.5||145||7.75||2||won||v Bangladesh||15 Sep 2007||T20I # 31|
|Bangladesh||123/8||20.0||6.15||1||lost||v Australia||16 Sep 2007||T20I # 33|
|Australia||124/1||13.5||124||8.96||2||won||v Bangladesh||16 Sep 2007||T20I # 33|
|South Africa||154/8||20.0||7.70||1||won||v England||16 Sep 2007||T20I # 34|
|England||135/7||20.0||155||6.75||2||lost||v South Africa||16 Sep 2007||T20I # 34|
|Sri Lanka||101||19.3||5.17||1||lost||v Australia||20 Sep 2007||T20I # 41|
|Australia||102/0||10.2||102||9.87||2||won||v Sri Lanka||20 Sep 2007||T20I # 41|
|Bangladesh||140||19.4||7.11||1||lost||v Pakistan||20 Sep 2007||T20I # 42|
|Pakistan||141/6||19.0||141||7.42||2||won||v Bangladesh||20 Sep 2007||T20I # 42|
|New Zealand||143/8||20.0||7.15||1||lost||v Pakistan||22 Sep 2007||T20I # 44|
|Pakistan||147/4||18.5||144||7.80||2||won||v New Zealand||22 Sep 2007||T20I # 44|
|South Africa||146/7||20.0||7.30||1||lost||v Australia||13 Oct 2011||T20I # 210|
|Australia||147/5||19.3||147||7.53||2||won||v South Africa||13 Oct 2011||T20I # 210|
|Pakistan||176/4||20.0||8.80||1||won||v South Africa||22 Nov 2013||T20I # 343|
|South Africa||170/4||20.0||177||8.50||2||lost||v Pakistan||22 Nov 2013||T20I # 343|
|South Africa||165/4||20.0||8.25||1||lost||v West Indies||9 Jan 2015||T20I # 413|
|West Indies||168/6||19.2||166||8.68||2||won||v South Africa||9 Jan 2015||T20I # 413|
|England||134/8||20.0||6.70||1||lost||v South Africa||19 Feb 2016||T20I # 503|
|South Africa||135/7||20.0||135||6.75||2||won||v England||19 Feb 2016||T20I # 503|
Weather looks OK and we should have no disruptions
Odds and My Play
SAF are 1.93,cant make a play till you dont see the teams and if there are no major surprises I expect a close a game with a few flips.
Disclaimer : This is my opinion at the time of writing this piece, my opinion changes based on team selection, weather, pitch changes and during the course of the game.Normally I do tweet my opinion in Running which can be followed on Twitter @rkm79 but i do not accept any responsibility and abuse if anyone loses money for following what I have said. YOUR BOOK IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY, NOT MINE